Florida Real Estate Market 2024

As per The Mortgage Reports, Florida has been the top choice for relocation for the past two years, and property prices in 2023 were skyrocketing with a breaking number of 318, 855 movers. The median home sale price saw a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, rising from $391,400 to $402,500 in September, 2023. 2024 is just around the corner, and prospective homebuyers in Florida are gearing up for a dynamic and competitive market. With the Sunshine State ranking among the top destinations for relocation, it’s no surprise that cities like Orlando, Sarasota, Care Copal, and Miami are magnets for new residents. However, popularity is followed by challenges, as increased demand tends to drive up home prices and intensify competition. 

So, in the short run, will there be a looming crash in the Florida housing market? Pinning down a definite answer is tricky. The market is influenced by a mix of positive and negative factors that could sway its trajectory. 

In September 2023, there wasn’t a noticeable plunge in home prices across Florida. Single-family homes and condo-townhouse units have maintained stability, showcasing steady or modest growth in statewide median prices. While localized fluctuations may occur, the overarching pattern suggests that, as of 2023, the housing market in Florida is holding its ground. Despite facing challenges like elevated mortgage rates, the Florida housing market hasn’t experienced a substantial downturn throughout 2023. Notably, closed sales of single-family homes have recorded a robust 6% increase in September. 

Back in the days

Before making predictions for 2024, let’s dive into the past.

As June 2017 came to a close, numerous real estate experts foresaw a decline in Florida’s home prices over the next 12 months. This anticipation stemmed from a report by the Miami Downtown Development Authority, which revealed a decrease in the average resale prices for condos—from $405 per square foot at the end of 2017 to $392 per square foot. Furthermore, the Florida market is closely tied to the markets of Latin American countries. Sales were not expected to increase until there was a recovery in the value of their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar.

Noah Breakstone compared Miami with national markets such as Hong Kong, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc. and reflected that Miami remains an affordable option for investors.  As per the data provided by the Florida Realtors Research Department, the median sales price for existing single-family homes in the second quarter of 2017 reached $240,000, indicating a 9.1 per cent increase compared to the corresponding period in 2016. And in the fourth quarter of 2017, it was $248,800.

In summary, between 2017 and 2019, houses had a tendency to be sold like hotcakes, often within a couple of weeks of being listed on the market.

Let’s move forward and look into 2019-2020. Regarding the second quarter of 2019, the home sale price stood at $269,300. The reason was the increase in home insurance costs in some areas of the state. Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor stated that May had proven to be the highest monthly total for single-family home sales in at least the past 10 years.

According to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index, Miami saw the highest surge in luxury property prices worldwide in 2021. 46 cities worldwide were included in the study, evaluating the percentage increase in the value of prime properties, which are in the top 5% of the market. The analysis spanned from the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021. 91,758 New York residents migrated to Florida in 2021 from any state.

Craig Studnicky, the CEO and president of RelatedISG Realty, mentioned that the surge in prices to record levels is attributed to a historic supply shock and persistent demand fueled by Florida’s tax benefits and the appeal of Miami’s coastal lifestyle. He noted that single-family home prices have been consistently rising in recent years, more than doubling since 2018 and reaching an average of $915,314 by the end of last year. Looking ahead, Studnicky predicts similar appreciation in Miami’s condo market in the coming year, as the inventory of both single-family homes and condos continues to tighten.

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What’s in Store for 2024?

Florida’s real estate market remains robust statewide, marked by consistent sales prices and closing rates. Nevertheless, sellers have had to adjust due to a decrease in buyer demand over the past few months. According to Ron Shuffield, the President and CEO of EWM Realty International, “South Florida is a global hub for business, travel and real estate investment”. 

The real estate landscape 2024 presents an auspicious environment for sellers; interestingly, buyers also stand to benefit. Florida is witnessing a continuous uptrend in home prices, and this trajectory is expected to persist until a shift in the supply-demand equilibrium occurs. Notably, the inventory of houses available for sale in Florida stood at 143,000 in September 2023, closely mirroring the 142,000 homes available during the acclaimed peak selling season in the summer of 2023.

Opinions of different experts diverge and envisage a potential 4% surge in home prices all around the USA. Based on the data mentioned above, October saw the median sale price in Florida escalate to $403,700, reflecting a robust 3% year-over-year increase. The persistent scarcity of available properties for sale stands as a pivotal factor driving this upward trajectory. As long as the shortage endures, the housing market in Florida is poised to sustain its upward momentum, with house prices continuing their ascent.